Major publishers plan to delay games in face of GTA 6 threat… but are they right to?
Hello hello! Welcome to the very first The Game Business Newsletter. It’s a treat to have you here with us. We’re kicking things off with all things GTA, and the industry’s preparation over its launch… but what does the data say?Plus, we chat about the launch of Assassin’s Creed Shadows, discuss the Trump Tarrifs and report back from GDC regarding the ESA’s new accessibility mission.You can read all about it below. But if reading’s not your bag, why not listen (or watch) The Game Business Show, where I’m joined by Game File’s very own Stephen Totilo to discuss those very same topics (plus plenty of GDC chat). You can watch it above, or download it via all good podcasting platforms.1:Huge games prepare to flee GTA6 launchThree major video game publishers have told The Game Business they are ready to delay their games to avoid Grand Theft Auto 6.Rockstar’s first GTA game in 12 years is due for release at the end of 2025, and game companies are holding off confirming their Q4 release slate until the developer makes its move.“Rockstar games always suck a lot of money and, more importantly, time out of the market,” said the boss of one of the world’s biggest game publishers. “We don’t want to be anywhere near that. We are working up multiple different plans for our titles.”Another senior exec added: “Even without GTA. it’s immensely difficult to find free time for new games to shine. Time is the real scarcity for us, not money. It’s tough out there.”The comments follow EA boss Andrew Wilson admitting it might push back its major Battlefield relaunch due to “some things happening in the year that may cause us to think differently about our launch timing”. The firm says it expects the game to be ready to hit its FY 2026 release window, but it will consider an alternative window to ensure it has the “appropriate time, energy, and player acquisition opportunity for this Battlefield to be all that it needed to be.”A European boss of a AAA publisher told TGB that the real issue is if the game launches at the end of October or early November.“We don’t want to launch just before or just after the game. If it arrives in late October, that means you either have to launch early – which a lot of people seem to be doing with the recent glut of summer release dates. Or go later, putting you up against the Black Friday sales.”It’s not just new releases facing this challenge. TGB spoke to two developers of Top 10 live-service games, and they also admitted that they don’t plan any significant updates to their games during the GTA 6 launch window.“GTA 6 is basically a huge meteor and we will just stay clear of the blast zone,” one studio boss told us. “We will nudge our releases back or forward three weeks to avoid it. Of course, the problem is everyone is going to do the same. So three to four weeks before or after GTA 6, you’re going to get a load of games dropping content in what they believe will be the safe zone.”Another developer added: “There’s no point swimming against the current. We just need to prepare to win players back once the excitement has started to die down.”The companies we spoke to told us that it’s the uncertainty that’s playing havoc with their planning, with publishers preparing for multiple eventualities. “If we move out to 2025, what if Rockstar do, too?” asked the same European boss. “Will we have time to push our game up? Or will we have to delay further? It’s stressful.”But is the industry overreacting?The last time a new Grand Theft Auto was released was back in September 2013 and it immediately became the biggest entertainment launch in history. 50% of all game revenue made during that month in the US was for GTA 5 (Circana data), despite the game only arriving half-way through the month.In the UK, GTA 5 accounted for 89% of all games sold during the week of its release (Nielsen/GfK figures) and 94% of revenue. For the first three weeks on sale — which also featured the launch of FIFA 14 — Grand Theft Auto 5 accounted for two thirds of all games sold in the UK. And it’s those first three weeks that publishers have been calling the “blast zone”.Player behaviours have shifted significantly in the 12 years since GTA 5. Just because GTA 5 took upwards of 90% of the market at launch in 2013, doesn’t mean GTA 6 will in 2025. Nevertheless, history suggests GTA is going to have an outsized impact on the market, even before considering the additional pent-up demand for this sequel. Are any games safe?This is a tough one. Working with data firm Ampere, we can see which games cross-over most with Grand Theft Auto (across Steam, PlayStation and Xbox), but the data doesn’t go back as far as the GTA 5 launch. That means that the cross-over figures we’re looking at will primarily be Grand Theft Auto Online players.So naturally, the games that have the most cross-over are online service-based games. In October (when Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 launched), 12.3% of CoD players also played GTA. That’s even higher for EA Sports FC 25, which had a 12.9% audience cross-over in September last year (when the football game launched). And in recent months Fortnite has had a nearly 21% audience cross-over with GTA, while Roblox had on average around a 22% audience cross-over.The numbers are much lower for single-player games. Just 3.1% of Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 players also played GTA Online during September last year (when the game released), while Star Wars Outlaws had an audience cross-over of 5.3%. But again, that’s because GTA in 2024 was primarily played by online gamers, whereas GTA 6 will appeal heavily to single-player fans.I did look for games released last year that had very low audience cross-over with GTA, and the one that jumped out was Metaphor: ReFantazio, which had just a 1.3% cross-over. I then looked at other Japanese-centric titles, but they skewed a bit higher. Dragon’s Dogma 2 had a 3.3% cross-over, Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth was on 3.2%, while Dragon Ball Z: Sparking! Zero had a 6.7% audience cross-over with GTA.Ultimately, the data is inconclusive. And even if you are releasing something that targets a widely different audience (say a kids game or a 4X strategy game), you’ve still got the challenge of trying to get media coverage. GTA will dominate the conversationWe asked PR service provider Press Engine to look at the impact big game launches have on media coverage. The firm gave us a ranking of the Top Ten most covered games during the launch weeks that Elden Ring, Starfield and Pokémon Scarlet and Violet came out. Those games all accounted for around 40% of all published articles from those Top Ten games. In the case of 2023’s The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, that number was above 50% (data courtesy of Press Engine). And that situation is becoming more acute as the mainstream media landscape continues to shrink. Therefore, even if you do have something that can sit besides GTA 6 and not directly compete with it, getting cut through for your game is going to prove challenging.Live-service anxietiesIt’s not clear what Rockstar is planning for its online mode when GTA 6 finally releases. But based on historical data, live-service games have some reason to be hopeful it can entice players back once the initial excitement has subsided.Grand Theft Auto Online is a hugely successful live service game, but it’s not an especially ‘sticky’ one. Ampere tracks how often a player returns to a game in a given a month. The average GTA 5/Online player comes back to that game 4 - 5 days a month. By comparison, the average Call of Duty player returns 6 - 7 days a month, while Fortnite players play that game 7 - 8 days a month on average. The data suggests that Grand Theft Auto Online has a reasonable share of players that engage on a more ad-hoc basis compared to other live service games, which is potentially good news for competitors hoping to entice players away from GTA 6 over time.We’ll have to wait and see what Rockstar is planning (if anything) for its online mode this year.What if it’s delayed?Take-Two says GTA 6 is on track for this year. But considering Rockstar’s penchant for game delays, there is almost an expectation that the game might be pushed back.And going back to the beginning, this is what is causing the biggest headache. If the game misses 2025, is it too late for publishers to move back in? And if it is too late, what does that do to the 2026 calendar? One company that would benefit from a delay is Nintendo. The company will be pushing its Switch 2 console this Holiday season, while Sony and Microsoft will be leveraging GTA 6 to grow sales of PS5 and Xbox Series S and X. If GTA 6 was to slip out of the year, it would give Nintendo a clearer run at the market.2:Ubisoft’s crucial Assassin’s Creed Shadows launch is strong (but not quite record-breaking)Assassin’s Creed Shadows is the second fastest-selling game in the franchise’s history, behind 2020’s Assassin’s Creed Valhalla.Ampere data estimates that the game has attracted 2.7 million players in its launch weekend, while Ubisoft has already confirmed 2 million activations. Shadows is also available to Ubisoft Plus members, so these numbers will include subscribers alongside those who bought the game via digital and physical stores.In the UK, the game’s opening week physical sales are 63% lower than what Assassin’s Creed Valhalla managed back in November 2020, according to Nielsen/GfK. However, that was a particularly big launch, fuelled by the COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared with 2023’s Assassin’s Creed Mirage, the number of boxed games sold is similar, but revenue was 47% higher (due to the game’s higher asking price).So it’s a strong start and well ahead of Star Wars Outlaws. GfK/Nielsen reveals that Shadows sold more boxed copies in the UK in one week than Outlaws managed in three months. The game is also the biggest UK physical launch of the year so far, comfortably ahead of Capcom’s Monster Hunter Wilds.The launch of Assassin’s Creed Shadows has been billed as a make or break release for Ubisoft, which delivered a string of commercial disappointments in 2024, including Skull and Bones, XDefiant and Star Wars Outlaws. As a result, the company has been laying off employees and closing studios to reduce it costs, with a renewed focus on its biggest franchises. The launch appears strong, but the question is whether it has been strong enough for Ubisoft.3:Industry ‘prepared’ for Trump Tariffs Speaking to executives at GDC last week, TGB heard plenty of concerns around the impact of the tariffs that have been imposed (or threatened) by the Donald Trump administration on the likes of China and Mexico. Yet these worries are primarily around what they might do to people’s ability to spend on luxury items (such as video games).When it comes to the direct impact on video games and consoles, platform holders had already mitigated the risks over a potential trade war. “They acted swiftly after the actions of the last Trump administration,” said one senior exec. As a result, a lot of games console manufacturing now takes place in countries such as Vietnam, which are (currently) not subject to tariffs. In terms of physical games, it varies by platform, but if we focus on Nintendo Switch (which is by far the biggest platform for physical games), those cartridges are made exclusively in Japan, and then they’re shipped to their respective territories for packing. Boxed games can be produced and packed in numerous locations, but a lot of US publishers tend to use local firms anyway, such as Vantiva. We’ll be covering more on this topic in the coming weeks and months as the situation continues to develop.4:Rivals unite for Accessible Games Initiative: “We had to succeed”The Entertainment Software Association took to the Main Stage at GDC to reveal the Accessible Games Initiative, which is a series of tags that developers can use on digital storefronts (and possibly physical ones in the future) to inform gamers of the accessibility features in their games.The tags cover features around audio, input devices, gameplay and visuals, with specific tags ranging from narrated menus and large subtitles, to the ability to control the whole game with just a mouse.The goal was to create a common language that can be used across the industry so that gamers can identify the features that they need when picking up a game.The project began as a collaboration between Google and Microsoft, before Ubisoft, Nintendo, Sony, EA and the ESA jumped on-board to help develop the tags. Amazon, Riot, Square Enix, and Warner Bros have since joined the project).Speaking to TGB after the reveal, Ubisoft’s Director of Accessibility David Tisserand discussed the five-year journey it took to deliver the tags, and his experience of watching traditional competitors working side-by-side on the initiative:“We had this common goal that we all believed in 100%,” he said. “Whatever different opinions or perspectives that could come up in the conversation, we always went back to those initial meetings where we created the vision and what we wanted to achieve. It was five years of work. It didn’t happen overnight. We had to be flexible. We had to be understanding and take each perspective into account before making a decision, which is why it take so long. But that initiative is really focused on the words we used. The criteria we used. It is almost pixel perfect. It involved a lot of discussion to make sure everyone agreed.“We knew we had to succeed. And therefore it made everyone to be flexible, to be understanding, and accept that sometimes their opinion wouldn’t be the one we used in the end. And we all did that.”As an ESA project, currently these tags are just for use in the US games market. Nobody would be drawn on the prospect of a globally agreed set of tags, but it would require the involvement of other global industry trade bodies.That’s all for today! We have so much more planned for you this week, including a deep dive into the state of games investment in our Feature Show, which goes live on Thursday. Also watch out for a bonus newsletter later this week, featuring more stories and interviews. Until then, thank you for reading! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thegamebusiness.com
Italia