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Government Funding for R&D and Productivity Growth
What’s the return on government funding for research?There are a few places in the academic literature you can look to for insight. Jones and Summers (2021) uses a hypothetical thought experiment to make the case that, on average, every dollar of R&D spent probably generates several dollars in benefits via its long-run impact on economic growth (see What are the returns to R&D? for more discussion). But that result applies only to R&D in general, government and non-government, bundled together. Is government funding above or below this average? This approach can’t say. Moreover, while I find it a compelling thought experiment, at some point we probably want to check the results against data. Fortunately, a set of recent papers help us do that.This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article Government funding for R&D and productivity growth, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles mentionedJones, Benjamin F., and Lawrence H. Summers. 2020. A calculation of the social returns to innovation. NBER Working Paper 27863. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27863Fieldhouse, Andrew, and Karel Mertens. 2023. The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper 2305. https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2305r2Dyevre, Arnaud. 2024. Public R&D Spillovers and Productivity Growth. Working paper.Moretti, Enrico, Claudia Steinwender, and John Van Reenen. 2025. The Intellectual Spoils of War? Defense R&D, Productivity, and International Spillovers. The Review of Economics and Statistics 107(1): 14-27. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01293
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Do prediction technologies help novices or experts more?
Which kind of inventor (or scientist) is going to benefit more from artificial intelligence: novices or experts? In theory, it can go either way.This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article Do prediction technologies help novices or experts more?, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles CitedNagaraj, Abhishek. 2021. The private impact of public data: Landsat satellite maps increased gold discoveries and encouraged entry. Management Science 68(1): 1-808. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3878Kao, Jennifer L. 2023. Mapping the cancer genome and R&D decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. SSRN Working Paper 3883041. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3883041Tranchero, Matteo. 2024. Finding diamonds in the rough: data-driven opportunities and pharmaceutical innovation. Working paper.Toner-Rodgers, Aidan. 2024. Artificial intelligence, scientific discovery, and product innovation. Working paper.
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27:49
Prediction Technologies and Innovation
Some inventions and discoveries make the inventive process itself more efficient. One such class of invention is the prediction technology. These can take a lot of forms. AI is one example of a technology that can help scientists and inventors make better predictions about what is worth trying as a candidate solution to a problem, but as we’ll see, there are many other kinds of prediction technology as well.This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article Prediction Technologies and Innovation, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles mentioned:Hoelzemann, Johannes, Gustavo Manso, Abhishek Nagaraj, and Matteo Tranchero. 2024. The streetlight effect in data-driven exploration. NBER Working Paper 32401. https://doi.org/10.3386/w32401Kim, Soomi. 2023. Shortcuts to innovation: the use of analogies in knowledge production. Working paper.Tranchero, Matteo. 2024. Finding diamonds in the rough: data-driven opportunities and pharmaceutical innovation. Working paper.Kao, Jennifer L. 2023. Mapping the cancer genome and R&D decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. SSRN Working Paper 3883041. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3883041Toner-Rodgers, Aidan. 2024. Artificial intelligence, scientific discovery, and product innovation. Working paper.
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Training Scientists in Low and Middle Income Countries
New Things Under the Sun is once again putting together a list of dissertation papers related to innovation. If you want your paper to be included, email the title, an abstract, and a link to the paper, to [email protected] by the end of November.In this post, coauthored with Caroline Fry, we look at the evidence on the effects of training programs for scientists in lower and middle income countries (LMICs). This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article Training scientists in low and middle income countries, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles mentioned:Schreiber, Kelsey L., Christopher B. Barrett, Elizabeth R. Bageant, Abebe Shimeles, Joanna B. Upton, and Maria DiGiovanni. 2022. Building research capacity in an under-represented group: The STAARS program experience. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 44(4):1925-1941. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13310Fry, Caroline V., and Michael Blomfield. 2023. If you build it, they will come: The impact of clinical trial experience on African science. SSRN Working Paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4629654Fry, Caroline, and Ina Ganguli. 2023. Return on returns: Building scientific capacity in AIDS endemic countries. NBER Working Paper 31374. https://doi.org/10.3386/w31374Fry, Caroline Viola. 2023. Bridging the gap: Evidence from the return migration of African scientists. Organization Science 34(1). https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2022.1580Kahn, Shulamit, and Megan J. MacGarvie. 2016. How Important is U.S. Location for Research in Science? The Review of Economics and Statistics 98(2): 397-414. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00490Kahn, Shulamit, and Megan MacGarvie. 2016. Do return requirements increase international knowledge diffusion? Evidence from the Fulbright program. Research Policy 45(6):1304-1322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2016.02.002
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The Decline in Writing About Progress
The frequency of words associated with "progress" in English, German, and French books rose during the era of industrialization, but is down since the 1950s, at least according to google. Is this a signal of declining cultural interest in progress, as a concept? Or just an artifact of how google constructed its text corpus?This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial version of the) article The Decline in Writing About Progress, originally published on New Things Under the Sun.
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